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Are we on track for Paris Agreement ?

The Sars-COV-2 virus world crisis has deeply affected millions of people's lives, unfortunately, the most vulnerable ones. Following the sanitary crisis, we are entering an unprecedented economic and social crisis. The way we'll get out of this crisis will probably determine the Earth's health for the decades to come.

Despite thousands of lost lives and millions of people sent back in poverty, this crisis is an opportunity for humanity to do an introspection: what societal model it aim for? what are the limits of the current model? what role as part of the whole earth ecosystem it wants to play? 

Air pollution has reduced dramatically in India due to lockdown,  residents in northern India say they can see snow-capped Himalaya 200 km away for the first time in 30 years - source SBS Hind

Several Earth indicators (see "the donut" concept in "the facts" page) have significantly evolved during the last three months.     

As an example, it has been calculated that the emission of more than 1GT CO2 eq. gaz have been avoided due to the lockdown period. On a daily basis, it's the first time since WWII that we see such a sharp CO2 emission drop.

CO2 eq. emissions due to fossil fuel consumption - source: Nature climate change 

On a yearly basis, it represents a reduction close to 4% of CO2 eq. emitted in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel (and a bit more than 1% of the total CO2 eq emitted on earth - see Facts page). The main drivers for this reduction are the slow down in ground transportation (50%), industry (20%), electricity production (20%) and airplane transportation (10%).

In the article, several un-confinement scenario are presented which translate in 1,5 GT (-4%)  to 2,7 GT (-7%) CO2 eq. emission reduction in 2020 (compare to 2019). This is in line with the yearly effort the humanity needs to do to keep the climate change under respectively 2 °C and 1,5 °C as set under Paris agreement.  

So, are we on the good track on this indicator?     

Unfortunately not. We already see that in China, the reduction of emissions compare to 2019 has faded away in May as the mobility and consumption kicks in again. 

CO2 eq. emissions/day reduction per region - source "le monde"

The gains are not structural at all. We can expect, as in 2009 after 2008 crisis, a massive rebound in energy consumption if we apply the same receipts to get out of the Socio-economical crisis. 

This is why it is so important to support and push NOW for alternative plans, leveraging on collective intelligence rising everywhere in the world. On top of desired individual transformation (for which the lockdown period is a fantastic opportunity to shape), let's us collectively support ambitious alternative plans .. as "new deal" for the planet: 

Several proposals are to be launched or on the table for your reflection and potential action, such as :

- European Commission: "European Green Deal - towards climate neural in 2050" (Dec 2019)  with the ambition to mobilize 1 trillion € over the next 10 years (incl. 500 M€ from EU budget) 
- Institut Jacques Delors: "Greener After" (policy paper, May 2020)
- The shift project: "Crise(s), climat: plan de transformation de l'économie fançaise" (May 2020)
- Isabelle Ferreras and al.: "work: democratize, decommodify, remediate the environment" (sociological approach - May 2020) 
- Resilience Management Group - "Sophia plan for Belgium transition post covid-19" (May 2020)   

We'll further analyse these plans in the next posts. stay tuned!


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